A Dooms Day Test for the Obama Presidency

Less than two short weeks before the presidential election of 2008, it appears momentum has held steady or waxed in support for a nation-wide referendum on the passionate hatred and utter contempt for the current Bush presidency. Why? Summed up in one dirty, four-letter word: Iraq.

This election isn’t really so much about the nation wanting to elect its first African-American president or asking for change (whatever that means). This election is about Iraq and the pivotal political role it has played. Every imaginable forum in America is a sound stage of contempt, from the biased news media, brutal political campaigns, idle workplace conversations, debates by the intelligently-deceived on college campuses, and in sacred places of worship, we have all been overcome with conspiratorial emotion in Iraq’s unenvisioned effects.

Iraq may yet continue to haunt Americans and the rest of the world even after Obama becomes president.

Soon-to-be President Obama has promised to begin the immediate withdrawal of American solders from Iraq. Sounds simple enough. No more American troops in the way of harm. Stability and prosperity for the Iraqi people without Saddam in power. Win-win, right?

But let’s play out this scenario further. What will happen to Iraq and the Middle East? The obvious yet ignored answer: Iran.

The CIA World Factbook entry on Iran states, “During 1980-88, Iran fought a bloody, indecisive war with Iraq that eventually expanded into the Persian Gulf and led to clashes between US Navy and Iranian military forces between 1987 and 1988.” This battle has the potential to be reignited if the United States surrenders and completely pulls out from a substantially weakened Iraq. Iran can seize the opportunity to finally win the war started nearly 30 years ago.

Do you think this may sound a bit unrealistic? Many of the same leaders presiding over Iran at the start of the Iran-Iraq war are still in significant positions of power and persuasion and may still hold a grudge. For example, Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei, in power since 1989, was president of Iran from 1981 to 1989, and a close confidant of the Grand Ayatollah and Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini, leader of Iran’s 1979 revolution. Khamenei is an outspoken critic of the United States and Israel. Iran is also a state sponsor of terror and endorses Islamic extremist views without restraint. (Parenthetically, might I add, it is unfortunate how many of the world’s wars were started or fought over because of unrelenting religious views. We’re all human beings with a need to connect with Deity and reach our divinely-established potential. God never intended religion to be the root of war but finite-minded foolish and fallible men made it such.)

Iraq is in a state of confusion over its political identity and military prowess. Iranian-trained and sponsored insurgents have successfully caused psychological turmoil and inflicted pain on two of its enemies simultaneously—the United States and Iraq. The insurgency has subsided, to a degree, thanks in part to the “surge” for which John McCain takes credit. But a withdrawal from Iraq means the surge will be permanently suspended and a ripe breading ground for trouble will resurface, much like pesky weeds in a lawn which come back, time after time, despite non-dramatic attempts to control the problem.

Logically, the insurgency and sectarian violence will eventually rise due to the withdrawal of American troops. The Iraqi people will be hurting even more as a result. Under Obama, the United States will have committed itself to some other endeavor rather than helping Iraq. At a moment when problems couldn’t get any worse for the Iraqi people, Iran will make its bold move and overtake Iraq. The haunting images of an Iranian invasion will be eerily reminiscent of Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990. Without the restraint of the United States so boldly and overwhelmingly present in Iraq, there’s no barrier for war from Iran’s perspective other than self-restraint. If you’re already a rogue nation not liked by many, how much more damage to a bad reputation will an invasion cause?

By the way, America’s presence in Iraq and the perceived and persistent problems as exploited in a biased media has taught the Middle East (and other nations, for that matter) one lesson: the United States of American supposedly makes serious blunders and frequent mistakes and cannot function without the public’s support for war (which begins to evaporate after the first reported casualty). Thanks to the know-it-all impeccable media, the United States has lost its perfected image as an awesome and untarnished mighty military power. That image, incidentally, was created not because of some carefully crafted and consistently coordinated public relations stunt, but because Americans really do care about their country and cherish freedom and want our country to succeed. Pointing cameras aimlessly and shoving microphones in anyone’s face, the media happily provide the political spin machine in another country direct influence and control, to an extent, in directing the affairs of our great country, including managing our own wars.

The image of the United States is tarnished because its constitutionally protected, profit-motivated free press makes it appear tarnished. Gone are all those years of dedication, ingenuity, persistence, and sacrifice by countless unsung American heroes because of a very un-American media in America. The media ought to be singing the praises and celebrating every day the freedoms they enjoy and building up the American image. Instead, they are leading the awful cause of our beautiful nation’s demise.

To continue, as you can plainly see, it’s quite easy for Iran to show no hesitation or restraint in acting aggressively against Iraq. The United States won’t jump in and save the world. They’ll be busy with other things (and if not busy, Obama will find excuses or give a speech since he’s good at it). Iran’s infiltration and domination of Iraq will undoubtedly call the attention of other nations and somehow the United Nations will get involved. But Iran, hardened by its resolve, will not care. Their next target, now much more easily reached, is Israel. With such foresight, this is probably why Israel recently requested permission from the Bush administration to launch a pre-emptive attack and take out Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

An Iranian conflict with Israel will mean other nations will come to the defense of Iran. Nations in the Middle East will declare holy war against Israel. Other nations will eventually join in the brouhaha against Israel. The United States will be forced to honor its commitment to protecting and assisting Israel. Thus begins World War Three.

Obviously, the extreme dooms day scenario I spelled out is riddled with logical assumptions, most of which I would deem not entirely far-fetched but likely improbable.

I worry about the next four to eight years. Obama’s supposed brilliance is ideologically handicapped and does not have the foresight or ability to logically predict consequences by taking such a hard-lined political position on Iraq. Nor can the American people be asked, by way of the statistical poll, to make an informed decision because they lack the right information and patience.

I’m perplexed at the delicacy of foreign affairs. One wrong move, something misspoken, or a statement misinterpreted can have serious and long-lasting repercussions. I am even more baffled at how foreign policy does not play a more important role in American elections. Instead, we’re caught up in a candidate’s promises of change, peace and financial prosperity without understanding the full consequences.

Ironically, earlier this week, Senator Joe Biden predicted at a fund raiser in Seattle:

“It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America.

“Watch. We're going to have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy.

“And he's going to need help . . . to stand with him. Because it's not going to be apparent initially; it's not going to be apparent that we're right.”

Obama’s unyielding resolve to withdrawal troops from Iraq could prove to be the starting point of the so-called crisis Senator Biden predicted. How far and to what extent this crisis will play out is the great unknown but it makes me nervous.